The global copper market entered March with a nuanced dynamic: marginal improvements in supply are unfolding, yet the structural supply deficit remains the core focus for industry participants worldwide.
On the supply front, a key development is the phased restart of major mining operations. Indonesia’s Grasberg Copper Mine, the world’s second-largest copper mine, has ramped up production to 50-60% of its total capacity, with plans to reach 85% by the second half of 2026. Phased resumption of its core mining areas is scheduled to kick off in April. Complementing this, new projects such as the Florence Copper Mine in the United States and the Chapi Copper Mine in Peru have begun commercial production, bringing incremental supply to the market.
Despite these positive signs, supply constraints persist. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects global copper mine production to grow at a modest 2.3% in 2026, hampered by declining ore grades at mature mines and a 14.3% global smelter idle rate. Persistently low copper concentrate treatment charges (TC/RCs) further limit smelters’ willingness to ramp up production, keeping physical supply tight.
Demand remains resilient, driven by long-term structural trends. The AI computing sector leads growth with a 45-55% annual increase in copper demand, while electric vehicles (EVs) – which consume 4 to 6 times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles – continue to be a major demand driver. Renewable energy infrastructure projects also sustain steady copper consumption. In the short term, however, the pace of recovery in traditional sectors such as power and construction is moderate, and rising exchange inventories have exerted temporary pressure on prices.
LME copper prices have been oscillating around $13,000 per ton, with Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper futures trading between 101,000 and 103,000 CNY per ton. Major financial institutions maintain their forecasts for a 130,000 to 250,000-ton global copper supply deficit in 2026. While the restart of Grasberg Mine will ease supply tensions, it is unlikely to reverse the deficit entirely, supporting a long-term bullish trend for copper prices.
Looking ahead, the market will closely monitor the progress of overseas mine restarts, the strength of peak-season demand in downstream sectors, and shifts in global macroeconomic policies – all of which will shape the copper market’s trajectory in the coming months.